ISW’s view of the world as of the end of last month. Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g From: ISW Publications <publications@understandingwar.org> Reply-To: "publications@understandingwar.org" <publications@understandingwar.org> Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2026 at 9:51 AM To: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> Subject: Intel Brief: December 2025 Newsletter Monthly Research Update from ISW [https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/on.jsp?ca=3d3980bc-481f-4429-8c21-d2813ffaf887&...] [https://files.constantcontact.com/c9ccf499301/d52445dc-0e5d-4239-a10c-175a18...] December 2025 Support ISW<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYowqplJrEoyjCNHES_KOi9caW6BInwzeJnOrNwyASEElj6cINJuQonqONUYxJEY7zglex1gbh-9DL9oSdzajHnzupWBohvK3WrxK5Srr8wx0vBM4ktK4Jphh7f8WG5vJxTUF2szLHKCkTLJlHut5B2fTk_kvUpAh3tXPOZpNtnhe2s4v6vWLZYsUZFYSGh6E_lHDorGcpJmedTqJ11zcY3oMPkqQC7GYIiBlMzuaX8d3DfdYq5EKnrLb09eDllMcvPO9G9Q6XqG8_RvsC46zqYU=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> Dear ISW readers, Each month, the ISW editorial team distills our research teams’ reports and assessments of the war in Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait developments, and the security challenges in the Middle East to provide you with an understanding in brief of the past month’s happenings across our research portfolios. December's Highlights On December 31, China Analysts Matthew Sperzel and Daniel Shats and China Researchers Alison O’Neil and Jackson Karas published the Special Report: Surprise PRC Military Exercise Around Taiwan<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYn0VO3GSp90z5mG8SedNTa-KJK4uZTKCw0cl3KNwLpfnIlz863UIW8A_9OsdHDyCnnu_7mfNBcOL0f_lT-r58hOfaVk48yjwy4a3mgBpgM8HVggAy05P-r2NnliN75tjoQe-rUFR8heq&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>, analyzing the December 29-30 Justice Mission 2025 exercise. [https://files.constantcontact.com/c9ccf499301/28fd0d18-53d3-4de3-975b-59309521b05f.gif?rdr=true]<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYn0VO3GSp90z5mG8SedNTa-KJK4uZTKCw0cl3KNwLpfnIlz863UIW8A_9OsdHDyCnnu_7mfNBcOL0f_lT-r58hOfaVk48yjwy4a3mgBpgM8HVggAy05P-r18w91j1HnbT3EgD6_LQxXg&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> In the Media<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYqHQSWCLgIEo4g67BobNysLqpkH4xO_YGnVJUohU_I196uV0JY5LbA50vIarjjPvTSS51urULTy0qbSTFL2rMTsJJ66g73ROgl7Flsp650nkNx_a4SzElImcJ-4WFjxy_1Nj0-pINvZOXp57_8Z3Gm6yVyAF0Ca3A_68m9_9BqbZ&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> [https://files.constantcontact.com/c9ccf499301/d9040670-25f9-4d2e-a2b3-d9b43a059f5a.png?rdr=true]<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsblugM6H6cPpyOOqTROELvFnVWPpUUXgXx0jf0wNNB1MmvjSAeRSJnKTdg28Dgx7fMdmrwyiGXgGBSnZUW7puTDDPGAI7o_lfNNlGUw60VD1lHyWr0nhASLStwbdOxcO5_xmTEjgIm3bXfokbn8Fe_Rrkesoc5KaX3OCNrU4K6kYplTt26twayzDsytt-2I_IvJFbemCzEGBjqQqGqJw7nyYHg==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> [https://files.constantcontact.com/c9ccf499301/88e939f6-2cea-438f-b509-9b74aa07c80b.png?rdr=true]<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsblunZbqeZsko5cEK1Lr3tQotyxVYlCU6sWKF5nuzTR8pzeIrKF-jnzfbjQh6y-v4batN0oh0C1HsG182jK3hKhEjkXL9wjI8t1FM99xSExqIIsd-TkKnNi4Ro1yCoicOeds-zQ8VsoUUM-f6hOMi3s98fUKrtnGLT3eqqMSyzmEmb0Kvj1BjbyZ2f_3Ws7Ll0aypo4lFLl6PW4=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> “The Kremlin has weaponized this issue [of missing Ukrainian children] in order to ingratiate themselves with the Trump administration.” — National Security Fellow Karolina Hird, The Free Press<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluz_2q8G7Y_u1XLpfEVpN1YrDGaixv84ugNBOGxOo8xT_KrunuhsBKfIDuKBMKyVSZIrvQ5ITKitKfHTH4gQbV99tkavOj8jCEbz9MhX-J-2esJuVM2BoKszCy-RPjgps-esWpFV1dRf60E1-u1__PIwghwiJLkLv-e-bbhSlAlc1AfgnDkWCLDQ==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>, December 16 “The fall of Pokrovsk will free up Russian combat power…Russia will have the flexibility to redeploy elements of at least two combined arms armies (CAAs) that are currently fighting in Pokrovsk elsewhere on the frontline.” — Russia Researchers Jessica Sobieski and Jennie Olmsted, RBC-Ukraine<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluWNMRxkQFmkUl75IWSi9JAhACWpvXdocy1X3otuFr-IIp-t8E6YJsFmIxLGq2g6YJgs16Hp9U6EQ3QvJG-L9Vhscrx9bhugQ8h9jDVF7hfbtZCIF0tT69PDasaYJC2kh4dvYQcID013XfGKhNQJLkW-ks8Os34tcWS3gUqvFQEqvPAK9VYVwZdNAkAeln-fLKZZpFB9LdinMk21AACbwziWkTZKh1zRkDSoX5Aj6NBiTzGYZrWCGRCg==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>, December 18 When Ukraine conducts a deep strike against Russia, there are normally “reports from local civilians and government about drones or drone debris, footage of drones flying overhead or air defenses activating, and footage—often geolocated—of fires, smoke plumes, or explosions…we have not yet observed any of these with the claimed strike targeting Putin’s residence.” — Russia Analyst Grace Mappes, WSJ<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluQTM2LSKL7TCXowIBZhkV-d-hnNygNFrsPvmM21kIR7hNNuNJII29ByeLZ_Hp64YC32Rotg2qk86nVMfG10IUQ4HR1SKRTUWnIdqNZu4cL5YbDRoft4-HgO3k-ZTJ48NAxG5tc7mRTmQ38X0d5mFdCZrsu1WzLb822O9A-i4PdmQUSp0J0o7m6hUJTwhnOW2y&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>, December 29 Ukraine & NATO<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYqHQSWCLgIEo4g67BobNysLqpkH4xO_YGnVJUohU_I196uV0JY5LbA50vIarjjPvTSS51urULTy0qbSTFL2rMTsJJ66g73ROgl7Flsp650nkNx_a4SzElImcJ-4WFjxy_1Nj0-pINvZOXp57_8Z3Gm710WEaI1WA11eN1e7RS3pl&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> Russian forces increased<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluLFpQI-OJsxTUpGJ3l3VB4V79x_Tl4HKqsBGpTvZwJGLEK0n-_fn0Yg_CDfgNuFKvCUQ9iTQqfg5dZfcOSAfrazPJWtqAq0zarPrwyTn9BcBCOSkTadhEQuT4JzS9i-kcIKGnvVcNbxoAyyvSvF5p36kWQVSySk9rDsfE8mCdd_6KBAOBSM9ir2yhIhJUPQIwNa352l5h2-pnfQ5V3EZWOA==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> their average rate of advance in 2025 due to a new operational template supported by technological adaptations and a shift in assault tactics. ISW observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine and regained roughly 473 square kilometers that Ukrainian forces had taken in Kursk Oblast in 2025. Russian gains in Ukraine amounted to 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s territory. The average daily Russian rate of advance in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day — higher than the daily average of 9.87 square kilometers per day in 2024. The Russian rate of advance has not been consistent throughout 2025, however. The Russian rate of advance was highest in November at 20.99 square kilometers per day, but this high came after one of the slowest months in 2025 — 8.8 square kilometers per day in October — and subsequently slowed to 15 square kilometers per day in December. Russian forces began employing a new operational template that relies on a prolonged battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign, tactical interdiction efforts, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults that enabled the Russian advances in the Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole directions that occurred in Fall 2025. Russian forces began achieving some BAI effects by using UAVs to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in early Spring 2025. The Russian military began to proliferate its elite drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies — the elements that have been largely responsible for successes in Russia’s operational BAI efforts — across the front line in April and May 2025. [https://files.constantcontact.com/c9ccf499301/7507c302-beb8-422a-ac79-0738e84c5fcf.gif?rdr=true]<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluLFpQI-OJsxTUpGJ3l3VB4V79x_Tl4HKqsBGpTvZwJGLEK0n-_fn0Yg_CDfgNuFKvCUQ9iTQqfg5dZfcOSAfrazPJWtqAq0zarPrwyTn9BcBCOSkTadhEQuT4JzS9i-kcIKGnvVcNbxoAyyvSvF5p36kWQVSySk9rDsfE8mCdd_6KBAOBSM9ir2yhIhJUPQIwbuPniZHNECT1UQV6XQ-uXg==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> Russian forces are currently unable<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluR5FpnsBRcZnMWpd62e1nYymDuhXCZyEKnN8ypaYpnzk4p4o1Ihtb838IUt8hbp5cuil8oXOBcncZEL7Q2BXyz4s5GnSX-lRjAosceFaRVkSBimAdA5CSH_GUCXUW1fb-DP1hjx9fjNKVyrZh9CV6Cw6y8th-7nhs7_lt7UVdQ34ktWjC6gzt8oHVqptGHQufVIRVzZVJQHO5JbhHsxqtyg==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> to build out a strategic reserve and will therefore likely be constrained to grinding, slow advances at their current rate and scale in the coming year. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on December 27 that Russia had fulfilled its plan to recruit 403,000 people in 2025 on December 3 and will surpass its set goal by the end of the year. Budanov stated that Russia can continue recruitment for a “long time” given its population and financial resources and has plans to increase its mobilization to 409,000 people in 2026. ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is setting conditions for involuntary partial reserve call-ups to sustain its military manpower and possibly to try to establish a strategic reserve in the face of its continuing high casualty rate in Ukraine. The Kremlin is moving forward<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluOiXgRf6JSCBmvi6vYhBX2s_nGm5o25gcgHmpjlwVS16CssJkbFbts6GaZwGyC1W9RPWTr2Gu9-wN5KHmf2SDWSJYR8ociVPbBp43UkYhm07_wl3KHn8VtY7zPwIZhxkqHeYkpCZms3QQTrUdRXaJwcDjNB4i9dNw_PQcZDccnoCYwYE77oRfgG9U3-CNALQW34gNfb2QR_GL1bTaQtPrfw==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> with efforts to mobilize active reservists compulsorily, likely to eventually deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine as Russia continues to suffer a disproportionately high casualty rate compared to its territorial gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on December 30 to authorize the deployment of active reservists to special training camps to ensure the protection of critical facilities starting in 2026. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russia fulfilled its 2025 plan to recruit 406,000 personnel but that Russian losses amounted to 410,000 or more personnel. ISW has observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through assaults or infiltration missions) in 4,899.75 square kilometers in 2025 — indicating that Russian forces have sustained at least 83 casualties per square kilometer. China & Taiwan Update<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYmxZKoTOuAHawUTv3TUzjwFEqY53jlJraQWOJUsAkyJXvM54QiUjErFkvWo3gmzTSoe18phTjXqEDY362miAxepUOpsLO92hdqyW4iXC90qQGg6ZEmnB5Kn-BnbaZWIOnjpEUkvwxAJesbVE5WRSMeVWLynxMmBsOzJPNEUiqDJ7ripvCUiu3CQ=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> The PLA’s Justice Mission 2025 exercises simulated a blockade<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYn0VO3GSp90z5mG8SedNTa-KJK4uZTKCw0cl3KNwLpfnIlz863UIW8A_9OsdHDyCnnu_7mfNBcOL0f_lT-r58hOfaVk48yjwy4a3mgBpgM8HVggAy05P-r0_mZCCS2DUYgc_BJjntCqH&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> of Taiwan’s major port cities and the interdiction of Taiwanese energy imports. The exercises occurred in eight zones surrounding Taiwan’s main island. The PLA officially announced five of the zones, which correspond to major cities and ports—two south of Taiwan, two north of Taiwan, and one east of Taiwan. The PRC Maritime Security Administration (MSA) issued two additional warnings for a zone west of Taiwan and a zone between the two northern zones, claiming that the exercises would extend to those areas. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced an eighth exercise zone adjacent to the single zone east of Taiwan where it expected the PLA to conduct further exercises. The exercises involved 18 PLAN vessels from the Eastern Theater Command (ETC), 14 of which were deployed in the waters north, south, and east of Taiwan and four of which operated 160-170 nautical miles east of Taiwan’s southernmost point. The exercises also included 201 air sorties, 125 of which crossed the median line between the PRC and Taiwan. PLAN forces north of Taiwan likely simulated a blockade operation against Keelung—a major port city adjacent to Taipei. PLAN vessels in the south assumed positions that could prevent foreign forces from entering the Taiwan Strait while interdicting Kaohsiung—Taiwan’s largest port. The United States announced its largest-ever arms sale<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluK79ZHYvNOu9Xpopc5vNhhNWNGrW1vdd5qyfBUfrR4vN01d7G3eVAmMHBEQfbmUA334su2SaHJ-b9je8k3eWDuB0S2G_B_HhGbP3_a_zxGtBeTMz3zx_6D4o7C_Hpu0zDaERto-tslA6uRxD4ljjotsdoo7M231sDouqhhYfOaIwfyDnhL7qLbw==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> to Taiwan, which will aid Taiwan’s efforts to implement an asymmetric defense strategy, on December 17. The sale amounts to approximately 11.1 billion US dollars and includes 82 HIMARS rocket systems, 420 M57 ATACMS missile systems, 60 M109A7 self-propelled howitzers, and an unknown number of Altius 700m and 600m unmanned loitering munitions, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and TOW anti-tank missiles. The White House and State Department both stated that the sale enhanced US national security interests by maintaining the military balance in the Taiwan Strait and ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The scale of this arms sale illustrates that the United States remains committed to Taiwan’s national defense, particularly in providing precision munitions and unmanned systems to implement an asymmetric defense strategy. An asymmetric defense of Taiwan would involve deploying low-cost systems and precision strike capabilities to achieve mission kills on critical systems, such as PLA amphibious assault craft, and deny PLA access to the Taiwanese coast. Middle East Security Project Iran Iran is reportedly prioritizing the rapid restoration<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluKMGTXnL1gidSZieOU_uEVYdlKxmXpJeS29UqtIPm0XfxzREqMrKlgXMM7bwVWzObwa8GW-3DhVhWIrVty5zN_Oj8xXiB6ha-oyqjZK-DxpQriu-T2eWt_qIWAm48gBK-KbFi1NsP8SdaTTu3ts7MiKqI03YjiXkYHwL2-bFkpfc=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> of its ballistic missile production capacity over other aims, such as the reconstruction of its nuclear program. This prioritization signals that Iran views the restoration of its missile capabilities as an immediate strategic priority, likely because it is more readily achievable in the short term. Small-scale protests demanding that the Iranian government address the devaluation of the Iranian rial and high inflation rates have continued for the second consecutive day in Tehran and Hamadan City, western Iran, on December 29<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluPg1rjyWSssXZ-tAFJxpn3plWF6sY403WpFMy7p1ffB-0MnUjpfjDXJPKnGwFlUCEeiybvj05S_W2iydIpOqJ_0UDL3nb3mwppcvB_WX_X4ER4aRy8lRT7FiPB0M8x1WmU3p8uACSexGEtaiNsPjELgiZvoMpaT0RMS4VVKnZJkE=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>, amid a rapid collapse of the Iranian currency since November 2025. The value of the Iranian rial has deteriorated rapidly after November 2025, though its value has fallen for years due to sanctions and Iran’s general international isolation. Protests initially began in Tehran on December 28. Groups of less than roughly 100 civilians, who were reportedly Iranian ”businessmen,” marched from Lalezar Street toward the Imam Khomeini Square on December 29, demanding that the Iranian government intervene in the economy and address the high inflation rate and devaluation of the currency. Iranian security forces halted and clashed with the protesters at the Istanbul intersection on December 29, according to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media and geolocated footage. Iranian security forces also launched tear gas and clashed with protesters on Boali Street in southern Hamedan City on December 29. Protests continued to expand geographically across Iran on December 31<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluR6FXpNmamiutsTfBxtyQRvB1Wk00TtPqZm9tvcdIf37H387qkmDghnE0cKObUym4ChJQ2W79LBx-m4487wnVrXLw7NJOzr7AeIiFmSnpnH1AubpCW7Mm92JOjGabecMeYCi5eJdxakbOFEhDFDaapsLERE3tDkUpbLvwvmbNA686ZbhF6m_5fw==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>. Small protests broke out in Tehran on December 28 and have since spread to 17 out of Iran’s 31 provinces. Iranian security forces shot live fire to disperse protesters in at least two instances on December 31, as protests continued across Iran for the fourth consecutive day. Security forces fired live ammunition at crowds of protesters in Fasa, Fars Province, and Kuhdasht, Lorestan Province, on December 31. The regime appears to be using live fire to suppress protests in less populated areas of Iran. The regime has historically struggled to impose control in more rural areas. The Iranian regime is taking steps to prevent further protests at universities. The regime likely views university students as a serious threat to regime stability, given that students played a significant role in the Masha Amini protests. [https://files.constantcontact.com/c9ccf499301/f4c39d02-99ee-4570-8a96-5e9f6c307daf.png?rdr=true]<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYm_AuOzLDQ0OcfBm8AWeSUp0u8jGEojdwBiUfwHVytVoqqgR2IgzXTckh62pLlwEom9MWpJm7-z6-2idFehL4FK11DhpjtQ1odT2X3J0CW1k53jEtua7EYJcIWnKm-Q_8IEH02miU8OXma9Lpynw95QdlSiT6cew6BHjhzdO5JsCU5llRAOlpvc5fH4311sBOw==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> Syria US President Donald Trump signed<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsblu9ny3yIlVRGQcNpXPnkc26eOzFNx8vryCEQdtQUQK1ayXQEUvC9co3Irm5neIGG1qCok09_GKKiSWMASo6SEFPKso7xLoeBCYleHW1soWvpa7cD1QyS5TSTyxS0HmjqRKGlGuVwZ_vNNNKYDh8jjmnAR27umenG3snXOQzS6acM4=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and repealed the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act on December 18. The Caesar Act was the most stringent layer of US sanctions imposed on Syria and imposed secondary sanctions that targeted anyone who provided financial support to the Syrian government. President Trump is required to submit a report to Congress within 90 days of the NDAA’s passage that confirms that the Syrian transitional government is meeting eight key US security demands. Turkey is indicating that it supports the Syrian government’s efforts to extend negotiations with the SDF despite Turkey’s previous demand that the SDF complete its integration into the Syrian state by December 31, 2025<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluR6FXpNmamiutsTfBxtyQRvB1Wk00TtPqZm9tvcdIf37H387qkmDghnE0cKObUym4ChJQ2W79LBx-m4487wnVrXLw7NJOzr7AeIiFmSnpnH1AubpCW7Mm92JOjGabecMeYCi5eJdxakbOFEhDFDaapsLERE3tDkUpiba87Aj_VsWGfQQCUy9OxA==&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>. The Turkish Defense Ministry’s spokesperson accused the SDF on December 31 of not taking tangible steps toward integration but stated that Turkey would support any Syrian government initiative to promote “unity” with the SDF. The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) likely seeks to conduct insider or “green-on-blue" attacks targeting US forces in Syria as part of an effort to reduce US forces’ trust in Syrian partner forces and disrupt the United States’ ability to effectively work with Syrian partners to defeat ISIS. A suspected ISIS-aligned Syrian security forces member killed two US servicemembers, a US civilian interpreter, and a Syrian internal security officer in Palmyra, Homs Province, in an insider attack on December 13. Palmyra is located in Syria’s central desert (also known as the Badia), which is a sparsely populated region that ISIS has used as a sanctuary to rest, refit, and train new fighters, particularly since its territorial defeat in 2019. The December 13 attack marked the first ISIS-affiliated attack on US forces in Syria since 2019. Lebanon The United States, France, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon have resumed discussions on several components of the US proposal to disarm Hezbollah after months of stalled progress. US, French, Saudi, and Lebanese officials met in Paris on December 18<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluR7oKmjSets6OI8FjNf15PzPQo48EdWcU0Es3FtMz54RHC9VkCgyrDZpFAw8U-5ONO4J1Qld5Ik0boWyt8GU8b6wrgyQ2uy_iQVy7JbE-Km-Tr1ThpzEfd4tsPAeynEUfjUvPEYw3F4_0k21oK0cPIBvdFbc3RJkMPBlwv-y8bfM=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> to discuss multiple parts of the US disarmament proposal, including international support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the implementation of the LAF’s Hezbollah disarmament plan, and border demarcation between Lebanon and Syria. French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux announced that the officials agreed to hold an international conference in Paris in February 2026 that aims to secure international support for the LAF. Israel is reportedly considering a plan<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsblu-6EFV6n7pIR3RSLcj68tRBXXtPRXB8e16LK6vD9Vr1Mfoez5XOMji_MNXwNIiAN2D3dpc5zVUM9HJUDclfB0-Ux-Wcvsq9MB-Z1Z-QFRPOsf4QL1mnjg6IjEe3UnUgWgfO4YAtZ38PpzHyqfVbNgtnQmEcC4c8ZKp1_JvLc0JHo=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> that outlines “stringent conditions” for southern Lebanon in return for Israel “forgoing military action,” according to Lebanese media. It is unclear whether “forgoing military action” refers to Israel refraining from conducting a new, expanded operation in Lebanon or Israel stopping its current military activity in Lebanon. Iraq Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), announced on December 8<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsblusW9CqQRbsBaZEd7gbfvoXPOXdY0Imq59_LQUVG4Vh4uoTufvNl8sFMh3xywRmDDGah7QiPz1PUG2sHQAk7QukeWyWLqzuk-rUbbvle0xbA3oVAuxqaEGbKDcHdSZ-Q_7b6vrjx43JZh24azs-Onsaw9BQLUzfa9zC-ugNYgvckg=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==> that it sent the November 2025 parliamentary election results to the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court for ratification, which will officially start the government formation process. This announcement comes after the Electoral Judicial Panel announced on December 7 that it resolved the 853 appeals that political parties and candidates had submitted to it regarding the election results. The government formation process will include the selection of the Iraqi parliament speaker and their deputies, the president, and the prime minister. The 2021 government formation process lasted almost a year after the Federal Supreme Court ratified the October 2021 election results in late December 2021. Yemen The United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC)<https://7et4umoab.cc.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001B79AZYKfFaVRvJweB-P3XyEyEiuNI-JAguS-O5P7m9o5qSYADywuYhOGs_SGsbluKMGTXnL1gidSZieOU_uEVYdlKxmXpJeS29UqtIPm0XfxzREqMrKlgXMM7bwVWzObwa8GW-3DhVhWIrVty5zN_Oj8xXiB6ha-oyqjZK-DxpQriu-T2eWt_qIWAm48gBK-KbFi1NsP8SdaTTu3ts7MiKqI03YjiXkYzS--m4Z7yYE=&c=6AwN2oRohmdk53u5kjvdyX3veXu78jULg454GhYLIRWJqhXQFS-VWA==&ch=C7ydCG_lkehd1gJQVq0sRYldTWy8s0JgNTRkz1o9Ey8xCS3IuovzYg==>, which is part of the Yemeni government, said that it intends to establish an independent state in southern Yemen in the near future. The STC is a UAE-backed political organization that controls some military forces in southern Yemen and has had long-standing secessionist aims. The STC launched an offensive in southern Yemen on December 3 to seize key areas of Wadi Hadramawt and confirmed on December 8 that it had successfully extended its presence to all eight governorates in southern Yemen. The UAE-backed STC's recent offensive in Yemen has caused a growing rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as between UAE-backed and Saudi-backed groups in Yemen, which risks fracturing the anti-Houthi coalition. We appreciate your continued support and enthusiasm for the Institute for the Study of War. 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