This is interesting….
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-february-3-2026/
If you have ever spent time on either the C7F or CNFK or CINCUNFORKOR, in the past, the war games and op planning often ignored the role of the PRC. Depending on the year, the Soviet/Russian role
and support of the DPRK was always incorporated as was possible/probably commitment by the PLA. It changed from year to year, but the issue of a direct confrontation with the PRC was never in the cards in US/ROK planning. The direct confrontation with the
PRC was always a “US issue.”
Granted that no one in their right mind would believe the DPRK would invade the ROK without very strong commitments from the PRC and/or Russia, but politically, this was a non-starter within the
ROK government. Keep in mind, their whole military establishment was based on staving off an invasion by the DPRK and holding on long enough for the U.S. to fully come to bear.
Three things have happened. One, the ROK is so far ahead economically, it doesn’t want to risk a war in which the commercial engine that makes the ROK strong is destroyed. They are clearly in the
deterrence mode and moving away from U.S. dependence on military equipment.
Two, ROK leadership really doesn’t want to reunify. What it wants is a more normal, civilized relationship in which the borders is open to trade and people visiting families. Neither of these two
are acceptable to Kim jung-Un and the Communist Party of North Korea. The longer they are split, the wider the economic divide becomes which makes the cost of re-building the DPRK greater. Plus, the pressure for re-uniting families dissipates as the generation
split by the Korean War passes on.
Three, ROK leadership sees itself as becoming a much stronger global economic power. It already a regional power and is tied with Australia in third behind the PRC and Japan in economic size. In
A&D, they have built and are deploying a successor to the F-16, they have export orders for both commercial and navy ships, they’ve built a tank that is smaller and lighter than the M1 Abrams that has export customers. Granted, much of this is built using
U.S. developed technology, but they have become serious players in the global A&D market. And, they are one of the world’s largest exporters of steel and electronic equipment. Samsung, LG, Hyundai, KAI are all world recognized brands.
The Trump admin may be playing on this and encouraging the ROK to do more to become a regional military power, as is Japan. In any war over Taiwan, we need the ROK (and Japanese and Philippine)
bases. Adding their military power to those of those other countries who might become involved presents a problem for the PRC.
Marc Liebman
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Render Harmless Death of a Lady
Forgotten Last Battles
Inner Look For a Few Francs
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