I think too much of the discussion—including Trump’s own rhetoric—is focused on whether a deal gets signed.

We entered this conflict with Iran widely regarded as one of America’s leading strategic adversaries, behind only China and Russia in overall military significance, and arguably the country most willing to attack U.S. forces and interests directly or through proxies. Few people expected the United States to establish air superiority so quickly and without sustaining a combat casualty. That is an extraordinary military success and a powerful message that the United States can still enforce its policies.

If Iran’s nuclear program has been significantly set back, its conventional military and ballistic-missile capabilities substantially weakened, its proxy network degraded, and its ability to threaten the world through the Strait of Hormuz permanently diminished, then much of the strategic objective has already been achieved. The missile threat Iran once posed—and the possibility of eventually pairing it with a nuclear weapon—has been severely reduced.

The Strait of Hormuz only provides decisive leverage when the world lacks alternatives. Every disruption pushes producers, energy markets, and consuming nations to diversify routes and supplies, gradually reducing Iran’s ability to hold the global economy hostage.

A deal or regime change would be welcome, but neither is the sole measure of success. If Iran emerges with a diminished nuclear program, less military power, reduced regional influence, and less control over global energy markets, that is a meaningful strategic victory with or without a signed agreement. Much of the remaining emphasis on “dealmaking” is political positioning aimed at public perception and the equity markets, and I expect the admin to pivot toward highlighting the other wins as hopes for a "deal" fade.


On Tue, Aug 4, 2026 at 11:16 AM randall abshier <abshierr@cox.net> wrote:
Marc, I totally agree with you. I lean MAGA but I’ve been saying for months that Trumps wants to say he made a great deal, “The Great Deal Maker”. Problem is IRGC will never follow through with any deal. They will break the deal. PROVEN!!!! I truly believe he is now being played by the IRGC/Iran’s regime. They can never be trusted. They hate the US and always will. My problem is you don’t fight to make a deal-you fight to win. A deal that won’t last is NOT a win. He needs to finish the job; let our military do their thing and destroy the IRGC and current regime. No deal but total surrender. This thing has been going on far too long-over 40 years and hopefully Trump will finally realize no deal but regime change! 
Sent from my iPad

On Aug 3, 2026, at 17:25, Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> wrote:



Here’s the latest from ISW.

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-august-3-2026/

 

My take is the DJT is letting his confidence as the deal maker get in the way of smart foreign policy and fighting a war. At this point, he should have figured out that he is being played by the Iranians. While not maybe intentional, the good cops (pragmatists) don’t have any power, or what they have is subject to the whims of the bad cops (IRGC). The only way this is going to end is either the U.S. walks away and Iran wins. Or we take out the leadership, destroy its ability to wield power and/or make it so economically painful that the Iranian economy collapses. That is the only way to get to the what needs to happen is regime change.

 

 

Marc Liebman

https://www.marcliebman.com

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