From: andy.cain@comcast.net <andy.cain@comcast.net> Sent: Friday, September 4, 2026 1:20 PM To: Mike Brattland <mgbrattland@gerlecreek.com> Subject: FW: What does Donald do next? ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Andrew Fox from Fox On War <mrandrewfox@substack.com <mailto:mrandrewfox@substack.com> > Date: Thu, 3 Sept 2026 at 09:33 Subject: What does Donald do next? To: > <https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/o/decfe297546d78fa/p.gif?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwOTAzMDgzMzA0LjMuNzk1OGMxZjNkOGZlMTk1OEBtZzEuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjI0MDI2Mzk4OCwiciI6ImFsYmllbWZveEBnbWFpbC5jb20iLCJkIjoibWcxLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbSIsInAiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwidCI6Im5ld3NsZXR0ZXIiLCJhIjoiZXZlcnlvbmUiLCJzIjoyNjYxNTU0LCJjIjoicG9zdCIsImYiOmZhbHNlLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6InRvcCIsImlhdCI6MTc4ODQyNDQyNCwiZXhwIjoxNzkxMDE2NDI0LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImVvIn0.D6UDc_mC-4iSzKaWKxjzVE-NUSkI5Oh5LO7EQd73ZBc> His war in Iran has failed to topple the regime and has burned through American strength. Every remaining option is ugly. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? 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Today’s post is free for everyone (so you can share it widely), but your subscription is what funds the work that makes Fox On War different. _____ <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=213976951&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=3z1ovo&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwiaWF0IjoxNzg4NDI0NDI0LCJleHAiOjE3OTEwMTY0MjQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjYxNTU0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yWWhuaAbePF1VxFBXOLrHR1JaTPK3BxXFVf6N7ziIRY> What does Donald do next? His war in Iran has failed to topple the regime and has burned through American strength. Every remaining option is ugly. <https://substack.com/@mrandrewfox> Andrew Fox Sep 3 <https://substack.com/@mrandrewfox> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=213976951&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=false&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3ODg0MjQ0MjQsImV4cCI6MTc5MTAxNjQyNCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTI2NjE1NTQiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.Aqcbo6CYs_6sTnJ1E8aGfKT61KlYi8vIjW6pcfCfX40&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=3z1ovo> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=213976951&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=false&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwiaWF0IjoxNzg4NDI0NDI0LCJleHAiOjE3OTEwMTY0MjQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjYxNTU0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yWWhuaAbePF1VxFBXOLrHR1JaTPK3BxXFVf6N7ziIRY&r=3z1ovo&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=213976951&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=3z1ovo&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwiaWF0IjoxNzg4NDI0NDI0LCJleHAiOjE3OTEwMTY0MjQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjYxNTU0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yWWhuaAbePF1VxFBXOLrHR1JaTPK3BxXFVf6N7ziIRY> <https://open.substack.com/pub/mrandrewfox/p/what-does-donald-do-next?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-restack-comment&action=restack-comment&r=3z1ovo&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwiaWF0IjoxNzg4NDI0NDI0LCJleHAiOjE3OTEwMTY0MjQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjYxNTU0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yWWhuaAbePF1VxFBXOLrHR1JaTPK3BxXFVf6N7ziIRY&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> <https://open.substack.com/pub/mrandrewfox/p/what-does-donald-do-next?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store-no-desktop&inbox=true&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app> READ IN APP Six months after Donald Trump promised a “little excursion”, the Iran war has reached a point at which spectacle meets economics. To recap: American and Israeli strikes killed Ali Khamenei and senior leaders. Iran’s succession system worked: Mojtaba Khamenei (or his cypher) took power, and the regime hardened around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The hoped-for uprising never arrived. Trump’s Venezuela model, removing the man at the top and pressing his successor into compliance, foundered on a system designed to survive decapitation. The operation was tactically brutal and politically barren. <https://substack.com/redirect/46310546-2b2c-4dd2-97c5-c619ba30a7ab?j=eyJ1IjoiM3oxb3ZvIn0.8F23ZsL0FrlN6ZHlVPR0s6DTjmoZwDql8W1ssgSTYow> Tactical success was real, although Washington has traded global readiness for an enemy that can still impose costs. CENTCOM claims that more than 85 per cent of Iran’s weapons industrial base was damaged or destroyed, while its air force and air defences were rendered largely irrelevant. However, Iran can still fire missiles and drones, exposing the gap between target destruction and strategic effect. <https://substack.com/redirect/215ddc92-0a35-4ba8-b2af-ddda56425e1a?j=eyJ1IjoiM3oxb3ZvIn0.8F23ZsL0FrlN6ZHlVPR0s6DTjmoZwDql8W1ssgSTYow> As I have covered in depth, America may have expended more than half the pre-war stocks of four critical munitions and missile interceptor stocks are now globally strained. Senior commanders now warn that barely a quarter of the US Navy’s destroyer fleet is deployable, with more than 50,000 personnel tied to CENTCOM. Iran hit back far harder than anyone expected. The cost is already being counted in American bodies. By 21 August, 18 US service members had died in connection with the war, and 757 had been wounded, with the Pentagon describing most injuries as traumatic brain injuries. Iranian strikes have also exposed how vulnerable America’s fixed regional posture had become. Satellite analysis found at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment damaged across 15 US military sites by mid-April, including accommodation and air defence systems, as well as the headquarters of the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, although restrictions on commercial imagery mean the true figure is almost certainly higher. The damage extends across the Gulf economy. ACLED recorded 172 attacks on non-military infrastructure by the end of July, more than 70 per cent of which caused damage or fire. A Congressional Research Service assessment put early damage to Gulf oil and gas infrastructure above $25 billion; the attack on Ras Laffan alone removed an estimated 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, equivalent to roughly 3 per cent of global supply. On the American side, Hormuz is the campaign’s clearest indictment. The strait carried roughly a fifth of the world’s traded oil before the war. Trump recently boasted that 24 vessels had passed in one day; around 130 did so daily beforehand. Occasional escorted surges do not amount to freedom of navigation. The global bond sell-off is the first convincing sign of the inflationary crash I have warned about since the start of the war: US ten-year yields briefly climbed above 4.8 per cent, while British ten-year borrowing costs approached 5.3 per cent. Debt anxiety is also driving the move, so the war is an accelerant rather than a sole cause, but the inflationary mechanism is now visible and looming on the horizon. So, what are the realistic options now? Trump’s first course is to maintain the blockade and his campaign of economic isolation. The theory is that deprivation will collapse the regime or force another agreement, which, of course, Tehran will observe only as long as it is useful. Iran’s rulers transfer the cost onto their population and retain the guns to enforce it. Washington can reduce its exposure by restoring Hormuz through escorted passages and possibly state-backed insurance. Food and medicine must be protected. Even then, this course consumes further American global military readiness, while Iranian families absorb the shortages. The second course is to leave at a decision point Trump can sell as victory. This is the least damaging option. A narrow armistice should make sustained commercial passage through Hormuz the trigger for phased suspension of the American blockade. Possible IAEA access to Iran’s enriched uranium would provide a second verifiable condition. Trump could claim that American force broke much of Iran’s conventional striking power and compelled the reopening of the world’s most important energy chokepoint (omitting that it was open before the war and a decent operational plan would not have seen it closed in the first place). The nuclear problem would survive, as would Israel’s readiness to strike again. The third course is the one Trump’s language now gestures towards. On Tuesday, he asked when Iranians would “rise up and fight”, while declining to say whether America would arm them, having urged them onto the streets in January this year, promising help, and instead leaving some 40,000 to be slaughtered by the regime. Trump may still hope for a coup; a seizure of power by regime insiders who may be more amenable to “a deal”. Another option is a return to the plan of arming Kurdish or other domestic factions or exiled groups to begin an externally supported insurgency inside a country of 90 million. Previous plans stalled when the expected defections failed to materialise, and Kurdish factions were divided, while Iraqi and Turkish leaders resisted American plans. However, the IRGC and Basij retain the largest coercive apparatus within Iran itself. The regime is pre-empting possible organisers and continues to hang detainees from January’s protests; Amnesty says at least 78 protesters and dissidents remain under death sentence. An armed uprising could very easily become a civil war in which civilians supply most of the dead. This course of action would be an injection of uncontrollable chaos, without guaranteed outcomes, and at huge risk of loss of innocent life, all based on the premise that literally anything else is better than the current regime. On the other side of the equation, Tehran’s campaign has the same brutally simple purpose it has had since the start of the war: survive Trump. Its leaders can conserve what remains and wait for an American president who might restrain Israel, given American polls showing catastrophic and terminal collapse of support for the Jewish state on both sides of the political aisle. A dash for a nuclear weapon is likely to become more attractive at the first opening, because the regime has learned that latency did not deter attack. Israel will watch for that move, seek strategic independence from the USA before its military options are constrained, and look to preserve its air corridor through Syria, even as its effort to block Turkish military infrastructure there creates another dangerous contest. The moral diagnosis is unambiguous: the Islamic Republic is an evil and malign regime which holds hostage nearly 90 million people and a civilisation with thousands of years of history. Its removal is desirable. The unresolved question concerns the means to remove it. Air power can destroy headquarters and open space for dissent; it cannot conjure a legitimate national leadership or guarantee that the IRGC fractures in the right direction. An American policy aimed at political change must keep Iranians connected and expose the security apparatus. Economic coercion should focus on those who sustain it, with humanitarian channels kept open. Grand promises of liberation create obligations that Trump is currently showing no signs of meeting. The twenty-first century so far gives many lessons on the risks of regime change. Trump and the Pentagon should have had that political design in place before the first aircraft left the runway or carrier deck. He needed to know who could govern and how the coercive state would be dismantled without smashing Iran itself. He had no answer, and everyone is now paying for the omission. He may stumble into a half-decent armistice, which would be preferable to extending this shambles in search of a better headline. The likely outcomes remain far below the victory he promised. On 13 January, Trump told Iranian protesters to seize their institutions because “HELP IS ON ITS WAY”. Many Iranians have already received the lethal bill for that sentence. Hopefully, at the second time of asking, promised American support will arrive on time. As always, my work on Iran remains free. All I ask is that you share it and subscribe. 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If there’s anything I can do to make this subscription more valuable to you, just let me know by reply. <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=213976951&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=false&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3ODg0MjQ0MjQsImV4cCI6MTc5MTAxNjQyNCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTI2NjE1NTQiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.Aqcbo6CYs_6sTnJ1E8aGfKT61KlYi8vIjW6pcfCfX40&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=3z1ovo> Like <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=213976951&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=false&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwiaWF0IjoxNzg4NDI0NDI0LCJleHAiOjE3OTEwMTY0MjQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjYxNTU0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yWWhuaAbePF1VxFBXOLrHR1JaTPK3BxXFVf6N7ziIRY&r=3z1ovo&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> Comment <https://open.substack.com/pub/mrandrewfox/p/what-does-donald-do-next?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-restack-comment&action=restack-comment&r=3z1ovo&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNDAyNjM5ODgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwiaWF0IjoxNzg4NDI0NDI0LCJleHAiOjE3OTEwMTY0MjQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNjYxNTU0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.yWWhuaAbePF1VxFBXOLrHR1JaTPK3BxXFVf6N7ziIRY&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> Restack © 2026 Andrew Fox 548 Market Street <https://www.google.com/maps/search/548+Market+Street?entry=gmail&source=g> PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vc2lnbnVwP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9c3Vic3RhY2smdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1mb290ZXImdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWF1dG9maWxsZWQtZm9vdGVyJmZyZWVTaWdudXBFbWFpbD1hbGJpZW1mb3hAZ21haWwuY29tJnI9M3oxb3ZvIiwicCI6MjEzOTc2OTUxLCJzIjoyNjYxNTU0LCJmIjpmYWxzZSwidSI6MjQwMjYzOTg4LCJpYXQiOjE3ODg0MjQ0MjQsImV4cCI6MjEwNDAwMDQyNCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJsaW5rLXJlZGlyZWN0In0.QdOAzux7FfMPRy7Gcwm-acbvkJesDDg1uDltMiB_Ekk?> <https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/o/a3969046d4816619/p.gif?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwOTAzMDgzMzA0LjMuNzk1OGMxZjNkOGZlMTk1OEBtZzEuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjI0MDI2Mzk4OCwiciI6ImFsYmllbWZveEBnbWFpbC5jb20iLCJkIjoibWcxLnN1YnN0YWNrLmNvbSIsInAiOjIxMzk3Njk1MSwidCI6Im5ld3NsZXR0ZXIiLCJhIjoiZXZlcnlvbmUiLCJzIjoyNjYxNTU0LCJjIjoicG9zdCIsImYiOmZhbHNlLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6ImJvdHRvbSIsImlhdCI6MTc4ODQyNDQyNCwiZXhwIjoxNzkxMDE2NDI0LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImVvIn0.YqdRwwfw2dQI28xmqqKTa7wz_3XrlhMV5rb72goJ1Ro> <https://email.mg1.substack.com/o/eJxMkEnO4yAYBU8TlhajgQVnQQyf3SgGLIYkvn0r8ebfvieVShXcgL22y5y1DxQNljRIj8AQqRSnnFOOILt02B0KNDcgWjf-vIIJ9M9sWmJQLFKpIkgBnHIslNecBKzIylAyFNMVa8ywYgzzhS1SCxXIxqLagGihHhznnSx9-j5ceC6hZlRPKHY0F56p7LbP82zQO0SDvr7WzZigBDDwgnbVAvecoqGEablqQe5lXCeYAu9-wBjQ0Dm9DTXnWdK4LBTnD4hmtAnf60jBjVTLD7SuRAiOmnGHT5C3-nlwvH-T_Az79LFml4rJzZXY4L3VDxp3z9mh_SAc05VppdDL0P8BAAD__zD9esI> -- Albie Fox 07876443221