…and… He knows/thinks the US will tire of supporting Ukraine and is willing to take the gamble that the Europeans won’t come to the Ukrainians’ aid in anything like the scope that we have. He’s pretty sure that Witkoff/Kushner/Trump will make Zelensky fold, at least on the concessions he needs. The Secretary of Energy was on CNN’s Sunday show yesterday and casually threw in that part of the oil price problem is that Ukraine has been bombing Russian oil refineries and taking that resource off the world market. Wonder what that means in terms of this administration’s commitment to Ukraine? From: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> Date: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 10:54 To: 'HeloBubbas' <helobubbas@helobubbas.com> Subject: [Helobubbas] Putin's latest demands WARNING - EXTERNAL EMAIL This Email originated from outside of the organization. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campa... While some might say reading this that Putin is delusional and living in an alternative world, he’s crazy like a fox. Remember, one of his long-term war aims is destroying NATO. Ukraine is merely a steppingstone to doing that. Right now, he has nothing to gain by agreeing to a peace treaty of any kind that doesn’t give him control of Ukraine. Anything short of that will lead to his supporters questioning why did Russia invade in the first place. Second, he sees an opportunity to link the Iran conflict to his war with Ukraine and put more pressure on the U.S. His read of Epic Fury is that Russia can survive that sort of onslaught and the U.S. doesn’t have enough weapons to conduct that kind of campaign against Russia. While the country could survive, I don’t think the Red Army and Air Force will. Any involvement of NATO in the Ukraine War will lead to an air campaign that isolate Red Army units so they can be destroyed piecemeal. If the Red Air Force tries to intercede, it will face an adversary against which it cannot compete, given the number of F-35s in NATO inventories. Bottom line is that Putin is a wounded, cornered animal. On one side he is fighting a war he cannot win. On another, he has an economy that has serious financial problems and his source of money is shrinking. Another limit is manpower. Russia is running our of military age males. And last, Ukraine’s drone war against the Russian Army’s logistics infrastructure and Russian oil is limiting the Red Army’s ability to sustain itself in the field, maneuver and ultimately fight. Unlike Hitler, Putin does not believe he will go down in a blaze of glory. He thinks he can win and Russia can again be the third dominant world power. Hence his positions. Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g Author of: Cherubs 2 Raider of the Scottish Coast Big Mother 40 Carronade Render Harmless Death of a Lady Forgotten Last Battles Inner Look For a Few Francs Moscow Airlift Predators The Simushir Island Incident Fight We Shall Flight of the Pawnee Prices of Opportunity Failure to Fire Insidious Dragon The Red Star of Death Member of: The Author’s Guild Military Writers Society of America Association of Texas Authors North American Snowsport Journalists Association -- _______________________________________________ Helobubbas mailing list -- helobubbas@helobubbas.com To unsubscribe send an email to helobubbas-leave@helobubbas.com
I don’t think Trump et al will try to force Zelensky to fold. In many ways, Zelensky now believes he holds the winning hand. He has U.S. and NATO backing and his adversary is in trouble. Trump seems to have given up on trying to shove a dumb peace treaty down Ukraine’s throat, as stupid as it was in the beginning. The deal maker in Trump has taken two major hits, Russia and Iran. The countries that either don’t have leverage over the U.S. or have what they want, or there’s a mutual interest, make deals. This is where Trump has had the greatest impact. Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g From: Terry McKearney <terry.mckearney@therangergroup.com> Date: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 1:30 PM To: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com>, 'HeloBubbas' <helobubbas@helobubbas.com> Subject: Re: [Helobubbas] Putin's latest demands …and… He knows/thinks the US will tire of supporting Ukraine and is willing to take the gamble that the Europeans won’t come to the Ukrainians’ aid in anything like the scope that we have. He’s pretty sure that Witkoff/Kushner/Trump will make Zelensky fold, at least on the concessions he needs. The Secretary of Energy was on CNN’s Sunday show yesterday and casually threw in that part of the oil price problem is that Ukraine has been bombing Russian oil refineries and taking that resource off the world market. Wonder what that means in terms of this administration’s commitment to Ukraine? From: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> Date: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 10:54 To: 'HeloBubbas' <helobubbas@helobubbas.com> Subject: [Helobubbas] Putin's latest demands WARNING - EXTERNAL EMAIL This Email originated from outside of the organization. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campa... While some might say reading this that Putin is delusional and living in an alternative world, he’s crazy like a fox. Remember, one of his long-term war aims is destroying NATO. Ukraine is merely a steppingstone to doing that. Right now, he has nothing to gain by agreeing to a peace treaty of any kind that doesn’t give him control of Ukraine. Anything short of that will lead to his supporters questioning why did Russia invade in the first place. Second, he sees an opportunity to link the Iran conflict to his war with Ukraine and put more pressure on the U.S. His read of Epic Fury is that Russia can survive that sort of onslaught and the U.S. doesn’t have enough weapons to conduct that kind of campaign against Russia. While the country could survive, I don’t think the Red Army and Air Force will. Any involvement of NATO in the Ukraine War will lead to an air campaign that isolate Red Army units so they can be destroyed piecemeal. If the Red Air Force tries to intercede, it will face an adversary against which it cannot compete, given the number of F-35s in NATO inventories. Bottom line is that Putin is a wounded, cornered animal. On one side he is fighting a war he cannot win. On another, he has an economy that has serious financial problems and his source of money is shrinking. Another limit is manpower. Russia is running our of military age males. And last, Ukraine’s drone war against the Russian Army’s logistics infrastructure and Russian oil is limiting the Red Army’s ability to sustain itself in the field, maneuver and ultimately fight. Unlike Hitler, Putin does not believe he will go down in a blaze of glory. He thinks he can win and Russia can again be the third dominant world power. Hence his positions. Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g Author of: Cherubs 2 Raider of the Scottish Coast Big Mother 40 Carronade Render Harmless Death of a Lady Forgotten Last Battles Inner Look For a Few Francs Moscow Airlift Predators The Simushir Island Incident Fight We Shall Flight of the Pawnee Prices of Opportunity Failure to Fire Insidious Dragon The Red Star of Death Member of: The Author’s Guild Military Writers Society of America Association of Texas Authors North American Snowsport Journalists Association -- _______________________________________________ Helobubbas mailing list -- helobubbas@helobubbas.com To unsubscribe send an email to helobubbas-leave@helobubbas.com
participants (2)
-
Marc Liebman -
Terry McKearney