An interesting take on the long term impact of the end of the war in Gaza from Charles Lipson….. Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g From: Charles Lipson <charles@lipson.me> Reply-To: Charles Lipson <charles@lipson.me> Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025 at 9:42 AM To: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> Subject: The Gaza Deal Moves the World's Tectonic Plates (The Telegraph) [Image removed by sender.] Trump Has Moved the Middle East's Tectonic Plates It's a nightmare for Putin, Xi, and the Mullahs Donald Trump's Gaza deal is disastrous for the West's enemies October 16, 2025 Link to op-ed here<https://facebook.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=06409e91701ebadc56c3ccc0d&id=5f1258e690&e=5d0b2d4ff4> Please feel free to circulate this email If friends wish to receive them, please email me<mailto:charles.lipson@gmail.com?subject=Wish%20to%20join%20email%20list> All subheaders are additions to the printed text ________________________________ The most important, and most immediate, consequence of the Gaza deal is how it is likely to prompt a wider accommodation with Israel. Preventing that rapprochement is why Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 and why Hezbollah (in Lebanon) and the Houthis (in Yemen) immediately joined them, backed by their Iranian sponsors. The Goal of the October 7 Attack (beyond Killing Jews) All of them hated Jews and they hated the Jewish state. But that was hardly new. They passed that venomous hatred down to generations of children. It was the heart of their “educational” curriculum. If their hatred is constant, what changed to prompt the attacks on October 7? The answer was the looming prospect of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, partnering with Israel, and isolating both the terrorists and Iran. In the months leading up to the attack, the Saudis had repeatedly hinted that they were about to conclude a deal with Israel. They had already encouraged their smaller allies to join the accords to test the local reaction. So far, so good. Why Did Iran's Islamic Regime Back the Terror Attacks? But the Islamist regime in Tehran knew that killing over 1,200 Israelis in an unprovoked attack would ensure military retaliation and stall any wider regional bargain as long as the war continued. They knew that taking hostages and holding them would prolong the conflict. They knew, too, that using Gazan civilians as “protective shields” would ensure thousands of Muslims were killed in the war, no matter how hard Israel tried to avoid those casualties. The civilian deaths and destruction would pose an insurmountable obstacle to regional peace as long as the fighting dragged on. Meanwhile, the fighting would divert attention from Iran’s fundamental strategic goal: building a deliverable nuclear weapon to threaten Israel and perhaps eliminate it entirely. Israel's Strategy: First, Extinguish Iran's "Ring of Fire" For almost two years, Iran and its terrorist proxies managed to fulfil their goals. Not that they were successful militarily. They weren’t. First, Israel held off the terror onslaught from Gaza and Southern Lebanon. Then it began to systematically dismantle the “ring of fire”, the terrorist networks Iran established around Israel. Israel's Strategy: Deal with Iran Itself after the "Ring of Fire" After the Iranian terror networks had been crippled and no longer posed a strategic threat, the Jewish state moved onto its main target: Iran and its nuclear programme. Israel managed to destroy much of that programme on its own, but some was buried deep underground, beyond the reach of its fighter jets. For Iran's Deeply Buried Nuclear Sites, Israel Needed US Help To take out those deep facilities, Israel needed (and received) help from America with its heavy, penetrating bombs and its huge, stealthy aircraft to deliver them. The combined success of the Israeli and American air forces is quite likely to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities and delayed their rebirth for years. Iran Never Expected This Annihilating Assault Iran never expected this devastating, comprehensive response, or its total success. That success not only meant the “ring of fire” was much weaker, it was also much poorer. Iran could no longer afford to pay the terrorists or replenish their weapons. The Israel-American Victory Set Up the Next Stage These military victories set the stage for * The effective surrender of Hamas (if not their complete disarmament in practice), * The end of major fighting in Gaza, and * The evisceration of Iran as the region’s most powerful state outside Israel. What Israel's Victory Means for the Middle East The most important regional consequence is that Israel has emerged wholly victorious as the Middle East’ “strong horse”. It has proved to be overwhelmingly powerful, not only militarily but also economically and technologically in a region that only respects strength. Moreover, it proved beyond doubt that it is willing to use its military force to protect its vital interests. It is not just a strong horse; it is ready to pull its weight, however costly that might be. The Big Question: What Happens Next? Now that the ceasefire deal has been signed and the hostages returned (all of the living ones; some of the dead), the obvious question is: “What happens next?” Most commentators have focused, understandably, on the uncertain future of Gaza, on whether Hamas or other terrorist groups there will reemerge (as they will surely try), and whether “Phase Two” of the peace plan will actually be implemented. Important as those issues are, they are not the most important ones, locally or globally. What are these dominant geopolitical consequences? One Key Answer: Iran and Its Terror Proxies Can No Longer Block a Regional Settlement with Israel The decimation of Tehran means that the Iranians and Palestinians can no longer block a wider regional settlement. That settlement hinges on partnerships with Israel. The key will be Saudi Arabia, when it finally signs onto the Abraham Accords, engineered by Jared Kushner during Trump’s first term and likely to be extended now by his efforts and those of Steve Witkoff. Russia & China Marginalized as Middle East Players But Russia and China have also been further marginalised as Middle Eastern players. Russia, in particular, had spent decades projecting its power and enlarging its regional position. That role was based mainly on its alliance with the Assad regime in Syria and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Today, Assad’s regime is gone and its replacement, though no friend of Israel, will be wary of taking on its powerful neighbour without significant external support. It can’t get that support from Iran, which is now too weak to provide it. Turkey to Replace Iran as the Leading Islamist Power With Iran diminished, expect Turkey to step in as leader of the Islamic world. Ankara hopes to make Syria a junior partner, limit the influence of the Kurds, become the leader of disparate Islamist factions across the region, and cement its status as Israel’s major regional foe. That’s a troublesome prospect for Jerusalem, but not nearly as bad as a powerful Iran on the threshold of nuclear weaponry. Global Consequences of the Israeli-US Victory Globally, Trump has emerged as the most consequential US leader since Reagan. His achievement of a regional deal that includes both Israel and the Muslim states is unprecedented. With that tectonic shift, America and Israel have solidified their positions as the key powers in the Middle East, militarily and economically. That’s true, even if Phase Two in Gaza goes poorly. What Does Israel Want Now? Israel’s goals are easy to understand, if hard to implement. It wants to deter threats against its civilian population and continue to grow economically. America’s goals are more complicated. Under Trump, it wants to assert itself as the region’s only outside power but, crucially, it wants to do so with a much smaller, less costly footprint. That means regional powers will pay for Gazan reconstruction and security. What Does Trump Want Now in the Middle East? What Trump wants is a calm region that * Doesn’t divert US resources, * Maintains close relations with Washington, * Excludes other major powers, * Pumps lots of oil, and * Fuels American economic growth with lower energy prices. Incidentally, those lower prices will add to the damage America and Ukraine are already inflicting on Russia. Where Will the US Devote Its Military Resources? The Far East, to Contain China If America means to have fewer boots on the ground in the Middle East and fewer ships in the sea there, where will they go? To the Far East, to contain China and deter threats to Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. That region is America’s next big challenge. Turmoil in the Middle East had delayed that full-scale military commitment to East Asia. That delay has ended. What about US Commitment to Ukraine? What about the war in Ukraine? Trump won’t be diverted and dragged into a heavier commitment there. He is determined to let the Europeans pay for that. Let them buy the weapons for Kyiv that only America can produce. Win-win. Will Putin Make a Deal? Not Unless He Thinks He Can Discard It after He Replenishes His Military Trump keeps saying that this joint US-European effort can move Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. Possible but unlikely. Putin has staked his regime and his very life on victory in Ukraine. He can’t stop now with so little to show for such a monumental sacrifice. The only deal Putin would consider is one he could discard as soon as he had replenished his military. That’s a pause, not a peace. NATO Members Would Install a Tripwire to Block Putin Nato members understand this grim logic of deceit and will install troops in Ukraine as a tripwire if Putin reneges. That tripwire means a Russian invasion would inevitably kill those Western troops and draw Nato members into a war that Russia could not win. That prospect is meant to deter the Kremlin from re-invading in the first place. * Knowing that he cannot pull off a deceitful pause and fearing for his life if he settles for a costly draw, Putin is very unlikely to end his costly war-of-choice. Trump may talk optimistically about negotiating with Putin, but the Russian dictator is more likely to lie on the undertaker’s table before he sits at the bargaining table, sincerely seeking a compromise. Short of a durable bargain (and that’s unlikely), the most probable outcome is slow Ukrainian progress on the battlefield, taking back territory as the Russia economy implodes and loses its war of attrition. The key to Ukrainian success is its steady progress taking out Russian oil refineries and logistics, less because of the strain that puts on the population and more because of the strain it puts on Putin’s depleted army. The Israeli-US Victory Opens New Possibilities These wider strategic issues are front and centre now because of Trump and Netanyahu’s success in the Middle East. The Possibilities for Israel For Israel, that success means a much bigger, much more secure role in the region for the first time since its founding 1948. That role is based on military and economic prowess and the recognition by most Muslim states, at long last, that Israel is here to stay and that it is more valuable as an economic and security partner than as a perennial pariah. (The governments of Keir Starmer and Emanuel Macron haven’t learned that lesson.) The Possibilities for America For the United States, the Gaza deal means a smaller, less costly footprint in the Middle East and Europe, but, paradoxically, an even more consequential role there. And it permits a far bigger commitment to the Far East, aimed at deterring Beijing. These changes are bad news for the West’s enemies in Iran, China, and Russia. They are very good news, though, for America and its allies in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Please feel free to share this email. ________________________________ CharlesLipson.com<https://facebook.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=06409e91701ebadc56c3ccc0d&id=204aeb2062&e=5d0b2d4ff4> has previous columns from all publications. 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