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Latest from ISW
by Marc Liebman 01 Mar '26

01 Mar '26

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-speci… Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g Author of: Cherubs 2 Raider of the Scottish Coast Big Mother 40 Carronade Render Harmless Death of a Lady Forgotten Last Battles Inner Look For a Few Francs Moscow Airlift Predators The Simushir Island Incident Fight We Shall Flight of the Pawnee Failure to Fire Insidious Dragon The Red Star of Death Member of: The Author’s Guild Military Writers Society of America Association of Texas Authors North American Snowsport Journalists Association --

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Real SinkEx
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

https://x.com/HaroldWren22/status/2027908960993378657?s=20 MK-48 Time CDR Mike Brattland, USN (Ret.) <mailto:mgbrattland@gerlecreek.com> mgbrattland(a)gerlecreek.com <mailto:mgbrattland@brattland.org> mgbrattland(a)brattland.org Admin/Moderator SanDiegoCarGuys List & Calendar of Events <mailto:sandiegocarguys@brattland.org> sandiegocarguys(a)brattland.org 619 454-0496 '38 Willys 2 Dr Sedan Webmaster for <http://www.brattland.org/> www.brattland.org <http://www.overthehillgang.com/> www.overthehillgang.com <http://www.overdrivehotrodnews.com/> www.overdrivehotrodnews.com <http://www.gerlecreek.org/> www.gerlecreek.org <http://www.helobubbas.com/> www.helobubbas.com <http://www.prowlers.org/> www.prowlers.org <http://www.gerlecreek.com/> www.gerlecreek.com <http://www.ford6vcarburetion.com/> www.ford6vcarburetion.com <http://www.westcoastwillysclub.com/> www.westcoastwillysclub.com <http://www.nssha.org/> www.nssha.org <http://www.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> www.nhahistoricalsociety.org <https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/

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UPDATED: U.S., Israel Launch Strikes Against Iran, Tehran Retaliates Across Region
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

https://news.usni.org/2026/02/28/u-s-israel-launch-operation-epic-fury-again st-iran-tehran-retaliates-across-region

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Israel's work in iran
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/2027887710501790143?s=20

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FW: AVIATION WEEK :: Rotorcraft Safety Collaboration Delivers Results ++
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

From: Harold Brattland <habrattland(a)arvig.net> Sent: Saturday, February 28, 2026 12:17 PM To: undisclosed-recipients: Subject: AVIATION WEEK :: Rotorcraft Safety Collaboration Delivers Results ++ Check out this site https://aviationweek.com/business-aviation/aircraft-propulsion/rotorcraft-s… Related article below this one...."The Rotorcraft Industry Lifts—With Defense In The Lead" -- Rotorcraft Safety Collaboration Delivers Results Share Tony Osborne <https://aviationweek.com/author/tony-osborne> February 27, 2026 <https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/crop_freeform/public/20…> Super-medium helicopters like Airbus’ H175 (pictured) and the Leonardo AW189 are increasingly taking over from heavy rotorcraft on offshore services as operators modernize their fleets. Credit: Anthony Pecchi/Airbus Helicopters Offshore helicopter operators are crucial cogs of the global economy. Thousands of oil and gas workers travel by helicopter every day to platforms that drill and pump hydrocarbons from beneath the seabed. Their work keeps the energy system running. Without the ability to transport those workers safely and reliably, an industry on which the world depends could grind to a halt quickly. History is littered with offshore helicopter accidents, and the sector has endured difficult periods, but the highly competitive offshore rotorcraft industry of today is working more collaboratively than ever to address safety concerns. * Data-driven initiatives are narrowing safety gaps * Market recovery has exposed supply chain fragility * Operators are investing in newer aircraft and automation Collaboration through organizations such as HeliOffshore, the industry’s safety association, and the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP), which has set operating guidelines for global offshore helicopter operators, is paying dividends in terms of operational safety. Born out of a joint review of North Sea helicopter operators after a string of offshore accidents, HeliOffshore now counts more than 150 members worldwide, including operators, airframers and energy companies. Members share data and best practices with the goal of eliminating fatalities and narrowing the safety gap. “Over the course of the 12 years that HeliOffshore has been around, we have seen some variation, but there is a positive trend [toward the goal],” HeliOffshore CEO Tim Rolfe tells Aviation Week. Even more heartening is the level of collaboration across the sector, Rolfe adds. “The level of buy-in to the idea of ‘Let’s jointly create our priorities and what we’re going to work on together’ is a much stronger measure,” he says. * Related content: * The Rotorcraft Industry Lifts—With Defense In The Lead <https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-propulsion/rotorcraft-industry-li…> * Airbus Is Modernizing Its French Helicopter Manufacturing Hub <https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manufacturing-supply-chain/airbus-modern…> The expanding membership base has improved access to operational data, allowing HeliOffshore to refine its safety performance model and target specific risks. Ten years ago, system component failure was the leading cause of offshore accidents. Today, the primary cause is loss of control, followed by controlled flight into terrain or water. System component failure has fallen to third place. Addressing these three areas is HeliOffshore’s focus, Rolfe says. “The safety performance model is at the core of what we do,” he notes. “It’s based on data, and it drives our strategic action.” To combat loss of control, the organization has focused on pilot training, including research into cockpit-scanning techniques during high-workload scenarios. Recent experiments in Qatar have studied how such techniques could be taught on lower-level training devices like personal computers before progressing to simulators and live flight. HeliOffshore also has worked with airframers Airbus, Bell, Leonardo and Sikorsky on the development of standards for a Helicopter Terrain Awareness and Warning System (HTAWS) tailored to offshore low-level flight. The system is designed to balance reduced nuisance alerts with substantially increased warning time of an impending surface collision. The new HTAWS system is to be installed in helicopters over the next two years and also has been mandated by the UK Civil Aviation Authority, Rolfe says. Another initiative, Enhanced Decision-Making in Engineering, looks at how “decision-making [is] actually conducted by experts,” Rolfe says. It aims to strengthen front-line decision-making under pressure by addressing potential issues around maintenance. HeliOffshore is actively encouraging operators to make more use of onboard automation, particularly as operators introduce newer aircraft such as the Airbus H160—which features an active recovery system—and increasing numbers of super-medium types like the Airbus H175 and Leonardo AW189. The organization has encouraged manufacturers to develop a flight crew operating manual (FCOM) to help operators get the best out of those advanced onboard systems. HeliOffshore recently produced a position paper on the use of night vision goggles in the offshore environment. While the association recognizes potential benefits, it says the goggles are “targeted toward operational scenarios where its benefits outweigh its limitations,” suggesting they are more useful for tasks such as search and rescue than flying to brightly lit offshore platforms. Achieving improvements in global offshore rotorcraft safety has been no easy task over the past decade, however. Forced to adapt after a wave of fatal accidents in the North Sea in 2009-16 that tarnished confidence in Airbus’ Super Puma family of rotorcraft, the industry also then faced a downturn in global energy prices that depressed rotorcraft demand. Several major operators entered bankruptcy, consolidated with competitors or exited the sector entirely. The market has since steadily recovered. Rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions have revived offshore exploration and drilling activity, prompting helicopter demand to outstrip supply. But this created problems of its own: The rotorcraft industry’s supply chain was simply not ready for sudden increases in flying hours and shortfalls in spares that ended up throttling operations, an issue that persists today. Without spares, some operators were forced to ground aircraft and could not provide some services, causing stress to offshore logistics operations. In response, some energy companies applied financial penalties on the helicopter operators when performance targets were missed. Despite these challenges, operators are financially healthier and have steadily increased flight hours across various sectors year over year, HeliOffshore data shows. “The increase in activity has been a challenge for us all,” says Alan Combe, BP’s lead aviation authority and chairman of the aviation committee of the IOGP, the energy industry’s global trade body. The IOGP has developed a series of recommended practices for offshore helicopter operating standards that leans on HeliOffshore’s work, and vice versa. Decision-making within energy companies is complex and not always linear, Combe adds. “Part of the challenge around spares has been the inability to forecast precisely what will happen in the energy industry,” he says. Improved financial stability is enabling operators to invest in newer fleets. Recent orders include H160s for Bristow’s West Africa operators, following that platform’s successful service entry in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil. The AW189 is entering service in Norway as operators there diversify fleets to reduce overreliance on the Sikorsky S-92. However, operators say they are facing longer waits for new aircraft as enlarged backlogs increase manufacturing lead times. Part of this is driven by growing global defense spending, which is helping military customers snap up production slots. Some operators are also reluctant to introduce a new, unproven aircraft because of the learning curve, Combe adds. To mitigate risk, operators are conducting route-proving exercises with new types. PHI Aviation trialed the H160 for several months, while Omni Helicopters International announced plans to test Bell’s 525 in Guyana once certification is secured. Such activities are increasingly recommended to iron out the wrinkles in the introduction of a new fleet, Combe says. “There is always a learning curve when you bring in a new aircraft, even for the OEM who’s done lots of work,” Combe says. “But once you put that aircraft to work, you’re going to learn more. The operational elements really come to the fore.” Looking ahead, Rolfe says many of the tactical safety challenges have been addressed, but discussions between HeliOffshore and IOGP are becoming more strategic. “Our job, that of the IOGP and HeliOffshore, is to ensure that we’ve always got the right environment for continued safe operations,” Rolfe says. <https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/author_thumbnail/public…> Tony Osborne <https://aviationweek.com/author/tony-osborne> Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines. The Rotorcraft Industry Lifts—With Defense In The Lead Share Tony Osborne <https://aviationweek.com/author/tony-osborne> February 27, 2026 <https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/crop_freeform/public/20…> Increased defense spending and military orders have pulled the rotorcraft industry off the ropes after the COVID-19 pandemic. However, commercial sales remain soft, and supply chain niggles persist. Credit: British Forces South Atlantic Islands There appears to be widespread cheer across the rotorcraft industry. Growth has returned, orders are piling in, and manufacturers must now deliver. Supply chains have steadily—though not fully—recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing some of the industry’s larger players to ramp up production rates. * Military sales are driving growth among rotorcraft manufacturers * The new Airbus H140 and Robinson R88 are generating interest * Airframers are actively exploring new markets, notably India Flying hours are also rising and often exceeding pre-pandemic levels, bolstering airframers’ support and services businesses, which increasingly account for about half of revenues. However, much of this growth is driven by military and government customers. Commercial orders appear to have plateaued. Big wins on military programs are pleasing the bean counters and shareholders, but large military orders come along only every few years. The constant flow of orders from commercial customers is what keeps programs in production. Bell’s commercial rotorcraft sales were essentially the same in 2025 as they were in 2024, while those of Airbus’ single-engine turbine light helicopters, the H125 and H130—the company’s best-selling products—were down more than 13% to 176 in 2025 from 202 in 2024. * Related content: * Rotorcraft Safety Collaboration Delivers Results <https://aviationweek.com/business-aviation/aircraft-propulsion/rotorcraft-s…> * Airbus Is Modernizing Its French Helicopter Manufacturing Hub <https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manufacturing-supply-chain/airbus-modern…> Airbus Helicopters’ revenue mix shifted toward military sales in 2025; 52% of revenue came from military orders, compared with 49% the previous year. Similar patterns are likely to emerge among other manufacturers of dual-use aircraft. Nonetheless, renewed growth is encouraging investment in new platforms. Last year, Airbus launched the new H140 twin-engine light helicopter that immediately appealed to emergency medical operators. Also last year, Robinson Helicopter Co. surprised the industry by revealing it was working on the turbine-powered R88, the largest rotorcraft it has ever developed and the company’s first all-new model since 2007. So far, Robinson has booked some 150 orders for the $3.3 million helicopter. The market also awaits the arrival of Leonardo’s AW09 single-engine light helicopter. The Italian manufacturer finally plans to have the rotorcraft certified and in service later this year in a passenger transport configuration, after a protracted development process that dates to the late 2000s. Hill Helicopters’ HX/HC50 is highly anticipated, particularly by the hundreds of customers who placed deposits before its first flight to acquire 1,500 examples of the turbine helicopter. The program has been held up by the development of an engine that the UK startup decided to design and build in-house. The first engine run is planned for late April, and first flight is planned for year-end, although both milestones previously slipped. Industry observers suggest additional models could emerge from unexpected corners of the sector. In the meantime, industry is anticipating certification and market introduction of advanced models: the Leonardo AW609 commercial tiltrotor and Bell’s fly-by-wire 525 super-medium rotorcraft. Both aircraft have promised high technology to the marketplace, although neither has attracted significant orders. One challenge facing new platforms is that rotorcraft operators generally value lower-cost, proven systems, maintainability and reliability, and few want to introduce something new. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the return of market stalwarts, such as light helicopter manufacturer Enstrom Helicopter. Enstrom had to wrestle with the FAA’s 2019 mandate to install a crash-resistant fuel system (CRFS). The company was unable to sell into its home market until its CRFS was finally certified last November. Meanwhile, Schweizer continues to rebuild its customer base for its proven family of 269/300-series light helicopters used for training and utility activities. Seeking new markets, manufacturers are looking to Asia and the Middle East. Airbus opened a fourth assembly line for its H125 single-engine light helicopter in Vemagal, India, in mid-February in conjunction with Tata Group. Other OEMs are also exploring partnerships in India and in Saudi Arabia. One of the main talking points at Verticon 2026—the industry’s largest vertical aviation conference, in Atlanta, March 9-12—could be the U.S. Army’s effort to replace its Airbus-made UH-72 Lakota training helicopters with a low-cost rotorcraft, such as Bell’s 505 JetRanger X, the Leonardo AW119 or the Robinson R66. Proposals featuring the two aircraft made it through to a third phase of the U.S. Army’s Flight School Next initiative to transform the service’s Initial Entry Rotary Wing training. Leadership changes at major manufacturers will also draw attention. Airbus Helicopters CEO Bruno Even will be succeeded by Matthieu Louvot on April 1, and at Bell, Danny Maldonado took over as president and CEO in October after Lisa Atherton was promoted to president and CEO of parent company Textron. <https://aviationweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/author_thumbnail/public…> Tony Osborne <https://aviationweek.com/author/tony-osborne> Based in London, Tony covers European defense programs. Prior to joining Aviation Week in November 2012, Tony was at Shephard Media Group where he was deputy editor for Rotorhub and Defence Helicopter magazines.

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Cruise Missle Attack
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2027647106408714514?s=20 CDR Mike Brattland, USN (Ret.) <mailto:mgbrattland@gerlecreek.com> mgbrattland(a)gerlecreek.com <mailto:mgbrattland@brattland.org> mgbrattland(a)brattland.org Admin/Moderator SanDiegoCarGuys List & Calendar of Events <mailto:sandiegocarguys@brattland.org> sandiegocarguys(a)brattland.org 619 454-0496 '38 Willys 2 Dr Sedan Webmaster for <http://www.brattland.org/> www.brattland.org <http://www.overthehillgang.com/> www.overthehillgang.com <http://www.overdrivehotrodnews.com/> www.overdrivehotrodnews.com <http://www.gerlecreek.org/> www.gerlecreek.org <http://www.helobubbas.com/> www.helobubbas.com <http://www.prowlers.org/> www.prowlers.org <http://www.gerlecreek.com/> www.gerlecreek.com <http://www.ford6vcarburetion.com/> www.ford6vcarburetion.com <http://www.westcoastwillysclub.com/> www.westcoastwillysclub.com <http://www.nssha.org/> www.nssha.org <http://www.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> www.nhahistoricalsociety.org <https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/

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Latest from ISW on the strikes
by Marc Liebman 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-repor… Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g Author of: Cherubs 2 Raider of the Scottish Coast Big Mother 40 Carronade Render Harmless Death of a Lady Forgotten Last Battles Inner Look For a Few Francs Moscow Airlift Predators The Simushir Island Incident Fight We Shall Flight of the Pawnee Failure to Fire Insidious Dragon The Red Star of Death Member of: The Author’s Guild Military Writers Society of America Association of Texas Authors North American Snowsport Journalists Association --

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FW: When the Lion Roars: What to Watch in the First 72 Hours
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

CDR Mike Brattland, USN (Ret.) <mailto:mgbrattland@gerlecreek.com> mgbrattland(a)gerlecreek.com <mailto:mgbrattland@brattland.org> mgbrattland(a)brattland.org Admin/Moderator SanDiegoCarGuys List & Calendar of Events <mailto:sandiegocarguys@brattland.org> sandiegocarguys(a)brattland.org 619 454-0496 ’38 Willys 2 Dr Sedan Webmaster for <http://www.brattland.org/> www.brattland.org <http://www.overthehillgang.com/> www.overthehillgang.com <http://www.overdrivehotrodnews.com/> www.overdrivehotrodnews.com <http://www.gerlecreek.org/> www.gerlecreek.org <http://www.helobubbas.com/> www.helobubbas.com <http://www.prowlers.org/> www.prowlers.org <http://www.gerlecreek.com/> www.gerlecreek.com <http://www.ford6vcarburetion.com/> www.ford6vcarburetion.com <http://www.westcoastwillysclub.com/> www.westcoastwillysclub.com <http://www.nssha.org/> www.nssha.org <http://www.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> www.nhahistoricalsociety.org <https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/ From: andy.cain <andy.cain(a)comcast.net> Sent: Saturday, February 28, 2026 7:57 AM To: Mike Brattland <mgbrattland(a)gerlecreek.com> Subject: Fwd: When the Lion Roars: What to Watch in the First 72 Hours Sent from my Galaxy -------- Original message -------- From: Date: 2/28/26 4:02 AM Subject: Fwd: When the Lion Roars: What to Watch in the First 72 Hours ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Andrew Fox from Fox On War <mrandrewfox(a)substack.com <mailto:mrandrewfox@substack.com> > Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2026 at 09:44 Subject: When the Lion Roars: What to Watch in the First 72 Hours To: <albiemfox(a)gmail.com <mailto:albiemfox@gmail.com> > <https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwMjI4MDk0NDEzLjMuNG…> A calm field guide to the fog of war—spotting disinformation, tracking Iran’s response, and the three signals that real regime change is in motion. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ Forwarded this email? Subscribe here <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9tcmFuZHJld2ZveC5zdWJzdGF…> for more You’re a paid subscriber — thank you. Today’s post is free for everyone (so you can share it widely), but your subscription is what funds the work that makes Fox On War different. _____ <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> When the Lion Roars: What to Watch in the First 72 Hours A calm field guide to the fog of war—spotting disinformation, tracking Iran’s response, and the three signals that real regime change is in motion. <https://substack.com/@mrandrewfox> Andrew Fox Feb 28 <https://substack.com/@mrandrewfox> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> <https://open.substack.com/pub/mrandrewfox/p/when-the-lion-roars-what-to-wat…> <https://open.substack.com/pub/mrandrewfox/p/when-the-lion-roars-what-to-wat…> READ IN APP Good morning, especially to those in the US who will read this later after hearing the news: Israel and US forces have finally struck the Iranian regime. After weeks of giving the Mullahs the chance to take an exit ramp and the Mullahs refusing to do so, Washington and Jerusalem have pressed the button on full-scale regime change by launching military operations. The aim is to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, defeat the IRGC, and create the conditions for the people of Iran to seize back control. <https://substack.com/redirect/f4b90fa5-5b97-42e3-948e-1d684acf7b43?j=eyJ1Ij…> This piece will not be a live commentary on events, as things will develop too quickly and it will become outdated before I even press “send”. This piece is about the things to look out for over the coming hours and days. Similar to last summer’s Operation Rising Lion, Operation Lion’s Roar initiated with coordinated cyberattacks on Iran to disrupt command and control. Unverified videos of missiles crossing Iraqi airspace en route to Iran have been circulated. This again mirrors the pattern of the 12 Day War. Social media feeds are showing strikes across Iran, including at Ayatollah Khamenei’s headquarters (confirmed by Iran International). It is an attack by air and sea. The first thing to watch out for is disinformation. The internet is already flooded with both real and fake videos, photos, and images taken from other events. Popular Open Source Intelligence sites will try to increase their followers and revenue, often rushing to report every rumour as fact. Be very cautious before sharing anything: I was nearly fooled this morning. It is very easy to fall into this trap. It will be especially tempting to share images that give you a dopamine hit of shock and outrage, or that support your confirmation bias, because they are what you want to see. Pause, verify, and only then share! The next thing to watch for is the Iranian response. At the time of writing, missile and drone launches have been sporadic and nowhere close to the waves of hundreds we saw during the 12 Day War. This shows how degraded the regime’s capabilities are. Command and control, air defence, and missile capabilities will have been prioritised targets for Israel and the US in early strikes. Once these Iranian capabilities are dismantled, Israeli and American aircraft will have complete freedom to strike whatever target they choose. The IRGC has announced that all response options are now on the table. So what are these options? They are already attempting missile and drone launches: some reports suggest these are not only against Israel, but against US bases in the region, like Al Udeid airbase or the naval base in Bahrain. Allies have spent weeks preparing these locations for exactly such an attack, but the Middle East is a large area, and it will be challenging to defend everywhere. Expect Iran to lash out across the Gulf as well as at Israel, and it will probably score some hits. Another response may come from what remains of Iran’s proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. Israel has spent weeks weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities, despite their reinforcement by IRGC commanders. They are already degraded, and Israel will have responses and defences prepared. The Shiite Iraqi militias have been deterred by American presence since 7th October and have not engaged significantly at any point. However, they are numerous and capable, so the key question will be how well deterrence holds when the regime’s survival is truly at risk for the first time. The Houthis in Yemen received a heavy blow last year from American attacks and, as far as we know, have minimal means to respond in a meaningful or decisive way. They are likely to be a nuisance, at best. Regime change is clearly the plan. This makes it likely that the regime will pull every lever at its disposal to retaliate. We might see activation of international subversion networks, such as domestic terror attack attempts in Western countries. Our security services will be on high alert. There is also a fear that Iran will try to use chemical or biological weapons. This is a slender risk, but a risk nonetheless. The question is the mechanism of delivery, which is where the regime will struggle, having minimal assets capable of deploying such weapons, and those assets will be at the top of the target strike list. The regime’s primary aim will be survival and to cling to power by whatever means they can. Israeli and American ammunition supplies are finite. They will need to halt at some point, so the key question underpinning everything is: can regime change be achieved with the time and ammunition available? As a reminder, we should focus on three key aspects: Firstly, the people’s uprising. US and Israeli agencies will have spent weeks providing anti-regime groups with support and tools to organise and take action. We have witnessed the Iranian people’s determination in this year’s uprisings. They have sacrificed a great deal, and their resolve is undeniable: they simply need the means to overcome murderous regime security forces and overthrow the Mullahs and IRGC. This is not an easy task, and the Iranian people are likely to have to sacrifice more lives. Security forces are the second factor. The aim must be to eliminate them beyond the point where they can respond meaningfully, or to create conditions where we see units refusing to fight or switching sides. We will soon see exactly how fanatical they are. Will the US and Israel have enough bombs to deter or destroy them, or will they retain elements of power and control? The third and final factor to look for is a clear psychological shock, such as a key leader like Khamenei being killed, a major figure publicly deserting, or these individuals fleeing the country. Think of Assad fleeing to Russia as his regime collapsed. Reports suggest that many senior Iranian leaders have already been killed, but we are not yet at the level of shock needed to prompt the final fall of the regime. For now, we do not know which way this will go: will the regime survive as an even more wounded beast, or will this mark the end of the Mullahs’ despotic rule? I have not addressed the ‘what next’ here and will discuss this in a future post. Rather than offering breathless commentary, I aim to continue providing you with sober analysis based on facts, risks, and certainties. And remember – think before you share! Free Iran. _____ Today is the last day of my February Sale: sign up today for 20% off a whole year of analysis you will not find anywhere else: <https://substack.com/redirect/ad5edc2f-52f1-48a1-8edb-46f7de6d7391?j=eyJ1Ij…> subscribe here! Thanks for reading! This post is public so feel free to share it. <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> Share This post went to the whole list, but your subscription is the reason it exists. Paid readers cover the cost of travel, fieldwork and the hours of research it takes to turn that into something more useful than a hot take. Thank you. If you know one person who’d value this kind of reporting, feel free to forward it — you’re the reason this community grows. If you’d like to back this work for the long haul, you can switch to an annual plan in one click in your account settings. If there’s anything I can do to make this subscription more valuable to you, just let me know by reply. <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> Like <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2661554&post_id=189446414…> Comment Restack © 2026 Andrew Fox 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vc2lnbnV…> <https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/open?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwMjI4MDk0NDEzLjMuNG…> <https://email.mg1.substack.com/o/eJxMkEEO4yAMRU9TlhE4DpAFZ4kMOBk0ASpC2ub2o7…>

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U.S. And Israel At War With Iran (Updated)
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 28 Feb '26

28 Feb '26

https://www.twz.com/news-features/iran-is-under-attack CDR Mike Brattland, USN (Ret.) <mailto:mgbrattland@gerlecreek.com> mgbrattland(a)gerlecreek.com <mailto:mgbrattland@brattland.org> mgbrattland(a)brattland.org Admin/Moderator SanDiegoCarGuys List & Calendar of Events <mailto:sandiegocarguys@brattland.org> sandiegocarguys(a)brattland.org 619 454-0496 '38 Willys 2 Dr Sedan Webmaster for <http://www.brattland.org/> www.brattland.org <http://www.overthehillgang.com/> www.overthehillgang.com <http://www.overdrivehotrodnews.com/> www.overdrivehotrodnews.com <http://www.gerlecreek.org/> www.gerlecreek.org <http://www.helobubbas.com/> www.helobubbas.com <http://www.prowlers.org/> www.prowlers.org <http://www.gerlecreek.com/> www.gerlecreek.com <http://www.ford6vcarburetion.com/> www.ford6vcarburetion.com <http://www.westcoastwillysclub.com/> www.westcoastwillysclub.com <http://www.nssha.org/> www.nssha.org <http://www.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> www.nhahistoricalsociety.org <https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/

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One View on the Situation
by mgbrattland＠gerlecreek.com 27 Feb '26

27 Feb '26

https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2027381369014481319?s=20 CDR Mike Brattland, USN (Ret.) <mailto:mgbrattland@gerlecreek.com> mgbrattland(a)gerlecreek.com <mailto:mgbrattland@brattland.org> mgbrattland(a)brattland.org Admin/Moderator SanDiegoCarGuys List & Calendar of Events <mailto:sandiegocarguys@brattland.org> sandiegocarguys(a)brattland.org 619 454-0496 '38 Willys 2 Dr Sedan Webmaster for <http://www.brattland.org/> www.brattland.org <http://www.overthehillgang.com/> www.overthehillgang.com <http://www.overdrivehotrodnews.com/> www.overdrivehotrodnews.com <http://www.gerlecreek.org/> www.gerlecreek.org <http://www.helobubbas.com/> www.helobubbas.com <http://www.prowlers.org/> www.prowlers.org <http://www.gerlecreek.com/> www.gerlecreek.com <http://www.ford6vcarburetion.com/> www.ford6vcarburetion.com <http://www.westcoastwillysclub.com/> www.westcoastwillysclub.com <http://www.nssha.org/> www.nssha.org <http://www.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> www.nhahistoricalsociety.org <https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/> https://sh60fhoas.nhahistoricalsociety.org/

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